There is a very simple way to work out how Erik ten Hag’s side are going to fare in the Premier League each week: simply look at the league table. If United’s opponents are in the bottom half, then they will win, more often than not (the only bottom-half side they have lost to is Crystal Palace). It might not be pretty or convincing, but they will almost-certainly win.

But whenever the Red Devils play a team from the top half of the table, they lose. Without fail. And often dismally. Saturday’s defeat at Newcastle, which was the finest example of a 1-0 thrashing, has emphatically quashed any hopes of a genuine revival after a brief upturn in results against bottom-half opponents.

And unless United can reverse their predictable tendency to fade as soon as they face a quality side, then all they can hope for is an upper-mid-table finish. In other words, the only destination is mediocrity.

Deceptive resurgence

People say the league table doesn’t lie, but on recent evidence, the form guide sure does. That’s because despite making their worst start to a season since the 1960s, United were top of the Premier League form guide at the beginning of the weekend, having won five of their previous six games.

Ten Hag’s side place at top of the mini-league caused double-takes from football fans around the world, but there was a huge caveat. With the exception of their 3-0 drubbing by Manchester City, they had enjoyed a very comfortable set of fixtures, facing Brentford, Sheffield United, Fulham, Luton and Everton.

They won all five of those games, albeit without looking comfortable in any of them. They needed two last-gasp goals from Scott McTominay to beat the Bees and late strikes from outside the area from Diogo Dalot and Bruno Fernandes to take the three points from their trips to Brammall Lane and Craven Cottage, respectively.

They also had an unconvincing win over Luton – who were making their first-ever trip to Old Trafford – and then enjoyed their biggest ever win of the season – and their first by more than a goal – at Everton.

But even their 3-0 win at a fiery Goodison Park was not exactly a stroll, as they withstood a first-half onslaught and benefitted from some terrible misses from the hosts, who hit the woodwork and were denied by a Kobbie Mainoo clearance off the line.

The run of results may have lifted United’s spirits, but it was clear that their revival was built on sand.

Back down to earth on Tyneside

Saturday’s trip to a freezing St James’ Park – with inclement weather causing United’s flight to be cancelled and forcing them to take the coach – was the real test of their mettle, and they completely failed it.

United’s record at St James’ Park has been poor even when the Magpies have been at their lowest ebb, and even though they have had far worse scorelines against them – not least last month’s 3-0 surrender in the Carabao Cup – this was one of their worst ever displays on Tyneside.

Eddie Howe’s side gave United a tactical schooling and it was a miracle that they only conceded once. The visitors managed only three shots on goal and were ravaged down both flanks, as Marcus Rashford and Alejandro Garnacho failed to work in tandem with Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Dalot behind them.

Speaking on Match of the Day, Newcastle great Alan Shearer tore into Ten Hag’s side. “They absolutely battered Man United in wide areas,” he said. “[Kieran] Trippier and [Tino] Livramento were sensational against Wan-Bissaka and Dalot, but in their defence, they got no help whatsoever from Rashford and Garnacho.

“Not enough effort from Rashford, he didn’t look interested. Newcastle created so many chances, they only got one goal, but it should have been many.”

‘Bad eggs’ eating away at United’s soul

Shearer brilliantly summed up United’s problem when he said there were “too many bad eggs” within the squad. Ten Hag has enough quality players to turn over lesser opponents, but when the going gets tough and those same players are really up against it, they tend to shrink.

Three days after an energy-sapping and thrilling 3-3 draw away at Galatasaray, United were forced to dig deep against Newcastle, but they couldn’t do it. Howe’s side had to endure Champions League agony of their own after being on the wrong end of one of the harshest handball decisions of all time against Paris Saint-Germain, but showed that they were made of much sterner stuff than their opponents.

“There are too many bad eggs in that Man United team, too many bad attitudes,” Shearer said. “All right when things are going well for you, you can get your feet on the ball, you can play, your heads are up when things are all nice and rosy.

“But when it’s not going for you and you’re a little bit tired, you’ve been away in a European game and you think you’ve got to roll your sleeves up, there’s not enough characters in that team.”

Injuries are no excuse

Ten Hag has on many occasions sought to blame his woeful second season in charge of United on their terrible luck with injuries. He has indeed had to do without key players for long periods, with Luke Shaw missing more than three months, Lisandro Martinez being out since September, Casemiro currently sidelined until 2024 and Christian Eriksen recently hurting his knee.

Tyrell Malacia and Amad Diallo have been injured all season, Mainoo has only just returned while Mason Mount has been injured twice and Rasmus Hojlund missed the first month after turning up with a back injury when he signed from Atalanta.

But United are hardly unique in that regard. The compressed schedule and the timing of last year’s World Cup has affected every club in Europe. and while United have been hit hard, they are by no means the team to have suffered the most with injuries.

Ten Hag’s side are currently ranked 14th in the Premier League injury table, with eight players out. Newcastle are bottom with 13 players unavailable and still managed to outplay them both in the league and in the Carabao Cup.

Tottenham have 11 players missing but they were able to hold Manchester City to a 3-3 draw, twice coming from behind and showing the type of resilience most United fans would kill for.

Sixteen defeats since lifting the Carabao Cup

In most matches – even the ones they are winning – United look bereft of a recognisable tactical plan. And for all Ten Hag’s insistence that there is a great team spirit among his players, there is a glaring lack of unity.

That could be seen in Rashford and Garnacho’s unwillingness to defend properly at St James’ Park, and in Rashford’s twitchy body language after being substituted, or when assistant coach Steve McLaren had to order the players to go and clap their travelling supporters after the defeat.

It has been more than 18 months since then interim coach Ralf Rangnick declared that United were in need of open heart surgery to fix their problems. They have spent around £400 million ($504m) since then, but still seem afflicted by the same disease.

Although last season on the whole was excellent, with United finishing third and winning a first trophy in six years, the truth is that they started to decline very soon after lifting the Carabao Cup. Since beating Newcastle 2-0 at Wembley, United have played 43 matches in all competitions. They have won 22, drawn five and lost 16. They have also failed to beat any of the top-six sides in that time.

Miserable December awaits

After sneaking a few wins against mostly poor opposition in November, United will have to really raise their game in December. Their next game is against Chelsea, who are enduring an equally wild season, but appear to be improving and are sitting 10th ahead of their trip to Old Trafford, which is a bad omen for United.

Then it’s a home game against Bournemouth, who are also improving, but who United should be able to turn over based on their record against bottom-half sides.

The Red Devils then host Bayern Munich while praying for a miracle to qualify for the Champions League knockout rounds before visiting Liverpool. No United fan will need reminding that the last time they went to Anfield, they lost 7-0.

Right before Christmas, it’s a trip to West Ham, who are also in the top half of the table and where they have lost on their last two visits. That’s followed by Aston Villa, who are fighting for a Champions League spot, before ending the year at Nottingham Forest, who are currently 15th.

Mediocrity is the new normal

Based on their current trajectory and current league positions, United can therefore expect to win two of their next six league games (against Bournemouth and Forest) while losing four. They could end up sneaking a win at West Ham or against the reliably unpredictable Chelsea, or maybe a draw against Villa, who have dropped points at some unexpected places this season.

But only the most optimistic of fans will expect anything other than a disheartening loss to Liverpool, or when they play any other genuine quality side in 2024. That’s the grim reality of following United right now. Gritty victories at places like Turf Moor or Goodison Park are just about feasible, but against teams with loftier ambitions, United once more look like a very ordinary and beatable team.

Unless there is a radical change of direction, supporters would be better off trading trophy or top-four dreams for the more realistic goal of qualifying for the UEFA Conference League.