Patrick Mahomes is already one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history.
The sixth-year Chiefs starting quarterback earned his 12th playoff victory in frigid temperatures last Saturday, moving him past Troy Aikman and into a tie with Aaron Rodgers for the 10th-most playoff wins of any QB in NFL history.
But this weekend, the 28-year-old will be doing something he’s never done before: starting a road playoff game. Oddsmakers don’t love Mahomes and the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs’ chances, setting them as a 2.5-point underdog in Orchard Park.
Sunday will be Mahomes’ 16th career playoff game as a starting quarterback. Twelve of those games were played at Arrowhead Stadium and the other three came in Super Bowl appearances — although Mahomes is one of only two quarterbacks ever to face a Super Bowl opponent in their home stadium.
The closest Patrick Mahomes has come to playing in a road playoff game before this Sunday was in Super Bowl LV, when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers played at their home, Raymond James Stadium. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)(Chris Carlson | AP)
Given that there is no playoff data to compare, looking at Mahomes’ regular season home/road splits can provide some information about his production when he is away from Kansas City.
Mahomes home vs. road regular season splits
There’s little noticeable decline in Mahomes’ stats on the road aside from a minimal uptick in turnovers. In the regular season, in two extra road games Mahomes has thrown 19 more touchdowns and three more interceptions. His passing yards per game also increases by 23 yards on the road. Oh, and the Chiefs average 3.5 more points per game on the road with No. 15 commanding the offense.
In July, Mahomes said in a preseason interview with CBS News’ Nate Burleson “I like to be the villain a little bit.”
Patrick Mahomes during the Chiefs’ Super Bowl parade celebration following last season’s Super Bowl LVII win over the Philadelphia Eagles. (AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)(Reed Hoffmann | AP)
“Obviously, it’s cool at Arrowhead to be the hero and win the game and be able to hoist the AFC Championship trophy, but it’s just as fun — no offense to my division opponents — to go to their place and win those games.”
On Friday, Bills offensive tackle Dion Dawkins said Mahomes doesn’t even know what Bills fans look like, given his previous trip to Buffalo came in 2020 during the COVID-impacted season.
“Pat has never been to the Bills’ stadium in full,” Dawkins said. “The environment will be different and not to say it’s in our favor, but the stadium is our favor. Stadium is us. That helps us. I don’t care what nobody says.
“This is the most dopest feeling I’ve ever had. We’re having two back-to-back playoff games at home. Come on now, like we get to leave and go eat wings. It’s cool. So good luck.”
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) reacts after defeating the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFL Super Bowl 57 football game Sunday, Feb. 12, 2023, in Glendale, Ariz. Super Bowl 57 was the last game Mahomes started as an underdog. (AP Photo/Adam Hunger)(Adam Hunger | AP)
Even if Mahomes is in an unfamiliar environment in January, one spot he’s been comfortable in is as an underdog. Which, again, he and the Chiefs are this week.
In Mahomes’ career, Kansas City is 9-2-1 against the spread and 8-4 straight-up as an underdog with him starting. And the last time the Chiefs were an underdog with Mahomes starting, he and Kansas City beat the Philadelphia Eagles 38-35 in Super Bowl LVII.