Sustaining Naval Strength: Navy's 30-Year Shipbuilding Strategy Relies on Financial Boost and Industry Capacity Expansion.

On March 23, 2023, while conducting surface warfare advanced tactical training (SWATT), the littoral combat ship USS Kansas City (LCS 22), the guided missile destroyers USS Kidd (DDG 100) and USS Hopper (DDG 70), and Gabrielle Giffords (LCS 10) conduct a simulated straits transit while underway in the 3rd Fleet area of operations.

In a new long-range construction plan, the U.S. Navy raises its fleet target to 381 ships from 373 existing ships.

According to the paper, the agency hopes to accomplish this target by 2042 if it can increase the capacity of the industrial base as well as its budget for shipbuilding.

According to a 2016 study, the Navy had previously requested a fleet of 355 ships prior to last year’s plan, which called for 373 ships overall. The most recent study proposes a considerable increase in frigates—58 in the new plan, compared to just 32 last year—but a little decline in heavy combatants, such as cruisers and destroyers, and littoral warfare ships.

For manned ships, the remainder of the strategy essentially stays the same.

Regarding unmanned, the Navy needs 134 total unmanned boats, comprising 78 unmanned surface vessels and 56 extra-large unmanned submarine vehicles, according to the fiscal 2025 long-range construction plan.

According to the plan, the fleet will exceed the target of 381 ships in 2042 (although that would not yet fit the intended balance of ship types), fall into the 370s, and then again achieve the requisite number in 2052.

But the material Defense News was able to receive indicates that this is predicated on a number of assumptions. The document was initially reported on by USNI News.

This profile is predicated on the industry clearing unnecessary backlogs in construction and delivering future ships on schedule and under budget. The statement states, “This profile reflects growth matched to planned, but not yet achieved, industrial capacity.” The plan also anticipates that the Navy will have the funding for shipbuilding necessary to purchase the appropriate number of the appropriate ship classes.

The Navy only requested to purchase six ships in its most recent budget proposal for FY25; however, that number would increase to 14 in FY27, 17 in FY31, and 18 in FY34. As a result, the plan would put pressure on the shipyards’ output and budget.

Every year, the Navy requests funding and announces this long-term strategy. It serves as a guide for legislators and business, but it is not legally binding. It outlines the Navy’s plans for the next thirty years.

Another option, limited by resources, “displays a Navy force structure reflecting a budget with no real topline growth above inflation,” but it is predicated on the assumption that the industry can get rid of its excess backlog and produce ships on time and under budget.

The Navy never achieves its 381-ship target in this alternative budget, when shipbuilding investment is not boosted but simply kept pace with inflation. Because between seven and twelve ships are purchased year over the majority of the 2030s and 2040s, the fleet peaks at 348 ships in FY42 and then begins to decline.