A year on from a shock win in Lusail, Saudi Arabia has now established itself as one of the game’s most influential power-brokers

Lusail, November 22, 2022 and Saudi Arabia are only 1-0 down at half-time in their World Cup opener against Argentina. Coach Herve Renard is furious, though. He feels as if his players have already given up on getting something out of the game and are more interested in marvelling at Lionel Messi’s mastery of the football.

“You just stand in front of the defence!” Renard screams at his midfielders. “Take your phone out, you can get a picture with him if you want! He has nobody [challenging him]! Did you see what you are doing?!

“You don’t feel we are going to come back?! You don’t feel it?! They’re playing relaxed. Come on! Come on, guys! This is the World Cup – give everything!”

So, they do. In a stunning spell just after the restart, Saudi Arabia turns the game, and the entire footballing world, upside down.

• The biggest shock in World Cup historyIn the 48th minute, Hassan Al-Tambakti and Abdulellah Al-Malki put the kind of pressure on Messi that Renard had been demanding, resulting in a turnover in the middle of the park. Al-Malki immediately plays the ball towards the Argentine area, where it drops for Saleh Al-Shehri, who surges past Cristian Romero with staggering ease before finding the bottom right corner of Emiliano Martinez’s net with a low, left-footed strike.

  Just five minutes later, with Messi & Co. clearly still in a state of shock, Salem Al-Dawsari controls a high ball under pressure from Angel Di Maria and Nahuel Molina before nimbly cutting inside Rodrigo De Paul and unleashing a sublime curling effort from the left-hand side of the box that Martinez can only help on its way into the top corner.

  There’s still more than half an hour of normal time to play, though. A Saudi victory still feels improbable. But Renard has his wish: Saudi Arabia believe now. Centre-back Ali Al-Bulaihi even tells the great Messi, “You will not win.”

  And he was right.

• Despite intense Argentine pressure, Saudi Arabia stands firm and when the final whistle goes, pandemonium on the pitch, in the stands, and even in the press box. Players, supporters and journalists – from both nations – burst into tears.

  Argentina’s 36-game unbeaten run is over, ended by a team ranked 53rd in the world. It looks, feels and sounds like the biggest shock in World Cup history and the stats support that suspicion. According to data analysts Nielsen Gracenote, Saudi Arabia only had an 8.7 percent chance of victory.

  Hardly surprising, then, that while some ecstatic supporters were mocking Messi by performing Cristiano Ronaldo’s ‘Siu’ celebration outside the Luisal Stadium, back home King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud was declaring a public holiday.

  Argentina eventually recovered – thanks to Messi – and went on to win the World Cup, while Saudi Arabia eventually bowed out at the end of the group stage, but the effects of a truly incredible 2-1 victory would be felt far and wide. Indeed, Morocco manager Walid Regragui said at the time that Saudi Arabia had pulled off a minor miracle that “shakes things up on an international stage”.

  As it transpired, though, it was just the beginning, the first tremor in a seismic shift in power that has seen Saudi Arabia rock football to its very core over the past year.

• The Cristiano Ronaldo Effect’Cristiano Ronaldo’s second spell at Manchester United ended in acrimony, while his 2022 World Cup campaign with Portugal was a disaster. With his superpowers seemingly on the wane, Europe’s elite felt that the forward was no longer worth signing. Saudi Arabia, though, wanted Ronaldo at any cost. In terms of his importance to the Pro League project, the Portuguese was priceless. Why? Because in the age of influencers, there is none more influential than Ronaldo.

  That was evident as soon as he arrived in Saudi Arabia. At a time when the sporting world was mourning the loss of Pele, the very-real ‘Cristiano Ronaldo Effect’ managed to momentarily draw the eyes of the media away from The King’s funeral procession in Brazil to a packed press room in Riyadh.

  “I must say, I’m very surprised by how many people there are here today,” Al-Nassr coach Rudi Garcia said, smiling, on January 3, 2023. “Normally, there are only three or four journalists here to talk about the game…” On this occasion, though, there wasn’t an empty seat at Mrsool Park. Everyone wanted to see Ronaldo speak for the first time following his sensational move to the Middle East.

  He said all of the right things, insisting that he wasn’t there solely for the money while at the same time stating that he didn’t care what anyone else thought about his transfer – which drew a massive round of applause from the journalists in attendance, some of whom had their back turned to Ronaldo as he spoke so that they could try get in the same shot as the five-time Ballon d’Or winner.

  There were then some shouts of ‘Siu!’ as he left the room, too, and while such behaviour was questionable, it was also wholly understandable. Everyone present was acutely aware of just how significant a signing Ronaldo was for Saudi Arabia.

  Within weeks of his arrival, Pro League TV rights deals were done with broadcasters all across Europe, including Italy, France and Germany, and it is now broadcast in more than 140 countries. The competition’s social media following also sky-rocketed, going from 850,000 Instagram followers to more than 10 million in a matter of days.

  “There is no doubt that the so-called ‘Ronaldo effect’ has been exceptional for us,” the Saudi Pro League CEO Carlo Nohra told the Gazzetta dello Sport in August. “It changed everything in terms of visibility, relevance and television contracts.”

  It also proved the catalyst for an incredible influx of high-profile players that prompted Pep Guardiola to proclaim Saudi Arabia as a new force in the global transfer market.

• Benzema coup sparks summer spending spreeWhen Ronaldo claimed that more high-profile players would follow him to Saudi Arabia, there was widespread scepticism, at least in Europe. But it didn’t take long for him to be proved right.

  In the days leading up to Real Madrid’s final game of the 2022-23 campaign, rumours began to swirl that star striker Karim Benzema was considering joining Al-Ittihad on a free transfer. The news even took los Blancos president Florentino Perez and coach Carlo Ancelotti by surprise. They had fully expected the Frenchman to sign a one-year extension at the Santiago Bernabeu.

  Benzema decided to leave, though, and while he left Madrid’s transfer plans in tatters, the striker suddenly added a whole lot more credibility to the Pro League. Ronaldo may have been a five-time Ballon d’Or winner but Benzema was the most recent recipient – and that sent out quite the message to the rest of the world. Suddenly, the floodgates opened.

• With Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) having taken control of the country’s four biggest clubs (Al-Nassr, Al-Ittihad, Al-Ahli and Al-Hilal), it immediately set about creating a ‘Big Four’ bolstered by big names. The likes of N’Golo Kante, Kalidou Koulibaly, Roberto Firmino, Jordan Henderson, Fabinho and Riyad Mahrez swapped the Premier League for the Pro League before Al-Hilal broke the Saudi Arabian transfer record to sign Neymar from Paris Saint-Germain for €90 million (£78m/$98m).

  “I believe Cristiano Ronaldo started all of this and everybody called him crazy, but today you see the league grow more and more,” the Brazilian told his new club’s media channel. “I am here to help the league grow more and more, and the league will be very competitive after the signings made in this summer transfer window.”

  However, of even greater significance than the signing of thirty-something superstars like Neymar was the acquisition of players such as Franck Kessie, Sergej Milinkovic-Savic and Gabri Veiga – all of whom are in their prime or have their best years ahead of them.

  It was those deals that underlined the Pro League’s potential to become a legitimate threat to the Premier League’s dominance of the transfer market. Indeed, while ambitious moves for Kylian Mbappe and Mohamed Salah may have failed, at the end of the day, only the English top flight (£1.59 billion/$1.99bn) ended up spending more money during the summer than the SPL (£701m/$879m).

• A top-class coach to build a top-class national teamRoberto Mancini’s resignation as Italy boss did not come as a huge surprise. The timing – midway through the Euro 2024 qualifying campaign – may have been jarring but it had been coming. There had been rumours of a falling-out with Italian Football Federation (FIGC) president Gabriele Gravina for some time. However, Mancini’s decision to almost immediately take charge of Saudi Arabia sent shockwaves through the sport.

  Financial considerations had clearly been a factor, with Mancini handed a deal worth a whopping €25m (£21.5m/$27m) per annum after tax – “I would dare 100 people to say no to a contract like that,” the coach’s son Andrea told Il Secolo XIX. “I think few, very few, would turn it down.”

  However, Mancini also claimed that it was a “great opportunity to experience football in a new country,” while he also cited the “presence of top players in the Saudi Pro League” as a clear sign of the “potential for growth in the national football scene”.

• Whatever the precise truth, landing Mancini is clearly a major coup for Saudi Arabia, who had parted company with Renard in March. The Italian obviously has experience of working with ambitious Middle Eastern-employers, having led Abu Dhabi-backed Manchester City to their first Premier League title, in 2012, while he over-achieved spectacularly by winning Euro 2020 with an average Italy squad. “I made history in Europe,” Mancini said in a social media post confirming his appointment, “now it’s time to make history with Saudi.”

  Fulfilling that vow will be far from easy. They have lost nine of their 13 matches since beating Argentina but Mancini has led Saudi Arabia to victory in their first two qualifiers for the 2026 World Cup.

  Just getting to North America would obviously constitute success for Mancini but it’s clear that the long-term strategy is transforming the national team into a major force by the 2034 World Cup on home soil.

• The World Cup dream realisedCrown Prince Mohammed bin Salman sitting alongside Gianni Ifantino in Qatar, strengthening the SPL with Ronaldo & Co., hiring Mancini – it was obvious all along why these moves were being made. Sport is one of the key pillars of Saudi Arabia’s drive “to become a global investment power house” and staging the World Cup was always the ultimate “dream”, as sports minister Abdulaziz bin Turki Al Faisal put it. That dream is now set to be realised in 2034.

  It’s not yet official, of course, but it’s only a formality at this stage. With FIFA having decided to spread the 2030 World Cup across three continents (South America, Africa and Europe), Asia and Oceania were the only eligible options for the following tournament.

  Potential hosts were then given less than a month to confirm their intention to bid and, after AFC president Sheikh Salman bin Ibrahim Al Khalifa of Bahrain had declared that the “entire Asian football family” was behind Saudi Arabia, the only other interested party, Australia, confirmed it was dropping out of the race just before the October 31 deadline.

  “Saudi is a strong bid,” Football Australia chief executive James Johnson explained. “They have a lot of resources, and not just [for] the 2034 World Cup. From the government, top down, they are prioritising investment in football. That is difficult to compete with.”

• What happens next? Anything is possibleA year on from that momentous upset in Lusail, it now feels as if such victories might eventually become less noteworthy. Over the past few years, Saudi Arabia has already demonstrated both its economic might and the scale of its ambition in Formula 1, boxing and golf. Indeed, it has effectively taken over the latter and there is no reason to think that football won’t be next.

  After all, the PIF already holds a majority stake in Newcastle United, who hosted Mancini’s first game in charge of the national team, while Saudi Arabia will host next month’s Club World Cup. It also hopes to stage the Women’s World Cup at some point, especially as it has now set up its own women’s team.

  The Pro League is also likely to go from strength to strength. Mbappe may not arrive next summer but it’s highly likely that Salah will, given the Liverpool legend will have just one year left on his contract and is reportedly open to moving to the Middle East at the end of the season.

  Saudi Arabia’s remarkable recruitment drive is obviously funded by oil money, which will eventually run out. However, as outlined in the Vision 2030 blueprint, Saudi Arabia intends to broaden and diversify its revenue streams in the coming years to avoid the risk of dependence on non-renewable energy.

  What’s more, the long-term plan is for football to become a revenue-generator – and the continued growth of the SPL is key in that regard. “It’s going to take a while for us to get there, but that’s the main objective: to get everybody to stand on their own feet,” Nohra said. “I’ve said on a number of occasions that football should be a net contributor to [gross domestic product] and not costing the government money – especially given the passion for the sport in this country.”

  Indeed, it’s claimed that 80 percent of what is a relatively young population either play, attend or follow football and everyone involved in the PIF-backed project believes Ronaldo is right when he says that the SPL can become one of the top five leagues in world football. And why wouldn’t they?

  When Ronaldo was first linked with a move to Saudi Arabia last November, Saudi Prince Abdulaziz bin Turki Al-Faisal said, “Anything is possible.” Every incredible development over the past year would support that claim.